However, there are also analysts who disagree. An analysis article in the Securities Journal believes that the Fed’s future withdrawal from the quantitative easing policy is an important factor leading to gold prices entering a bear market, and the decline in investment demand in India and other consumer countries will also be negative for gold prices in the medium and long term, and gold will enter a longPrecious metal cost bear market cycle. .
In the Asian market on Monday (January 19), international spot gold was traded at US$1277 per ounce. Due to risk aversion, gold recorded a 4.65% increase last week, the largest weekly increase in the past 1.5 years. The index is still on the rise, but this does not hinder the upward momentum of gold. Gold bulls once again approached $1,280 after a lapse of six months, and the long-short war is imminent. Last week, the Swiss National Bank raided the global financial market. After canceling the Swiss franc peg to the euro, the financial market experienced extremely large fluctuations. The US dollar and gold were sought after by safe-haven funds at the same time and continued to rise.
Desheng Fund Research Center recommends that investors, at this time, may wish to buy the bottom to invest in QDII in emerging markets, and at the same time carefully participate in gold theme funds. With the fall in inflation in the third quarter, the stock markets of emerging market countries are expected to have greater opportunities. Therefore, QDII, which invests in emerging markets at this time, is a better opportunity to buy bottoms. Researchers of the center believe that due to concerns about short-term risks in the gold market, the allocation ratio of gold funds should not be too high; but in the medium and long term, as an important allocation tool for value-preserving assets, gold funds still have significant allocation value. After the short-term sharp drop in the price of gold, the timing of gradual allocation can also be grasped.
Last week, New York Gold broke through the two key resistance levels of 1739.1 and 1748.9 on Friday night under the support of better economic data and the restoration of market confidence. Technically, New York Gold has broken through the upper track of the BOL channel, and the third track of the channel has also turned upwards. After the RSI indicator formed an effective breakthrough in the short-term RSI at the beginning of the week, the current long-term and short-term RSI has diverged upward, and the ADX curve has also been in the previous one. After the round of decline in the market, it turned down from the high position, and the current low position less than 20 began to reverse upward. Comprehensive consideration, the current strong upward trend of gold has formed. Eurozone confidence regained boosting the market. In the Eurozone, although the Greek debt assistance issue could not be resolved in the first half of last week, from the performance of the euro last week, market confidence has not completely collapsed. On the Greek side, negotiations with international creditors are scheduled to resume on Monday. The German Finance Minister and the Spanish Prime Minister have expressed a positive attitude and full confidence in the Greek issue. The President of the European Central Bank also made a statement that the European Central Bank’s new bond purchase plan It has helped restore confidence in the euro zone and said it is ready to start buying member states’ sovereign bonds when necessary. Despite the difficulties, the attitude and determination of the leadership have eased the market's pessimism about the Greek issue, which has brought strong support to gold, which has maintained a high degree of positive correlation with the euro in the near future. Good global economic data stimulate demand. According to data released by Ifo, the German Economic Research Institute, Germany's November Ifo business climate index rose to 101.4 from 100.0 in October, better than the expectation of 99.5, and the level of 106.8 in the same period last year. On the other hand, the preview value of PMI rose to 50.4 in November, and the final value of last month was 49.5. This is the first time that PMI has broken above the 50th line of prosperity and decline in the past year, and it also set a new high in the past 13 months. Good economic data has boosted the gold market. According to authoritative statistics, as of September 2012, a total of 582 metric tons of gold were imported, which is higher than India's 558 metric tons. In 2012, nominal gold imports will climb to the top 10. It can be expected that the market's import demand for gold will continue to rise for a long time in the future. Confidence in the Eurozone has recovered, and economic data in major economies around the world has been good, stimulating demand growth. Technically, a relatively obvious upward trend has also appeared. It is expected that gold will perform better in the near future after breaking through the important resistance level above.
At the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 95 cents to close at $88.19 per barrel, an increase of 1.09%, with a fluctuation range of $85.00 to $88.95 per barrel. But the London North Sea Brent crude oil futures for delivery in October fell 52 cents to close at 112.25 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.46%.
Gero also pointed out that in recent trading days, some unreliable gold bulls have left the precious metals market one after another. Some bulls executed profits when the price of gold rose, while others were forced to leave the market after hitting a stop loss after the price of gold fell sharply. But for now, fresh buying interestPrecious metal cost is resurfacing.
But from a short-term perspective, it is still unclear whether gold prices will strengthen in the future. Wellxin chief analyst Yang Yijun said that since the price of gold has not completely got rid of the technical dilemma, investors should not be overly optimistic about the fundamentals. He said that he is inclined to predict that the gold price will continue to show complex fluctuations. However, in the short term, as the price of gold broke through last week's rebound high on July 5, the short-term downward pressure has been largely reversed, so it is not appropriate to be too bearish in the short term. However, in terms of the moving average system and operating trend, the price of gold has not escaped the periodic decline.
However, it is worth mentioning that although silver speculation has brought huge returns to many investors, the turbulent trend of spot silver prices in the past year is still heart-pounding when recalled. From the beginning of the year to April 25, spot silver surged all the way to an all-time high of 49.77 US dollars per ounce. After that, it experienced three plunges in early May, late September and mid-December. On September 26, it hit a year low of $26.04 and finally ended sadly.
Frank McGhee, chief precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC, pointed out that non-agricultural data has dispelled the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's further quantitative easing. As the yields of treasury bonds and short-term interest rates rise, gold may continue to fall in the next few trading days.
A relevant person in Dongshan Department Store told reporters that at present, there has been a sales blowout in gold and silver. In the same period last year, the three-day sales of the two stores of gold and silver (including ornamental gold, platinum, etc.) were more than 1.7 million yuan, which soared to 4.7 million yuan this year. The increase in sales in three days was unexpected to the merchants. Among them, investment in gold accounts for the largest proportion, reaching more than 65%.